And the surprising part is, over many years and many iterations, some powder reacts almost exactly the same as it did 30 years ago. For example, the 'old' and 'new' IMR3031 and H4895 give the same velocities with the same charges as they did back in the 'old days'. On some other forums there are some more curious folks who have even done pressure traces and found the pressure curves are even within the statistical error of being the same.
And, yes, I understand that some powders are more 'basic' than others. 3031 and 4895 were developed for military contracts so have a pretty large surplus base. I suspect many powders are based on those with modifiers for making them burn a bit faster or slower.
Small arms internal ballistics is one of those areas where there was not a ton of measurements done. Back in the 80's I did some work with the folks in the Army labs (I was still in the Army back them) and we talked about small arms testing, specifically about computer modeling. I was kinda surprised that they had no models and did little analytical work. Almost all of it was statistical based on measured date. It was easier to just batch test stuff. Get a lot of powder, load a bunch of rounds and shoot them. Get measurements and adjust the loads. I suspect the current methods aren't much different given how powder is made.
Larger canons were different since shooting them was a lot more expensive (and required large ranges). They had some pretty detailed models for the internal ballistics on those guns. Unfortunately they did not scale well. The main reason being that the bigger guns used single base powders and modified the grain structure to change the burn rate. The modeling was concentrated more on calculating the surface area of a grain of powder as it burned. And the single base powders (sometimes black powder) had some very predictable pressure/rate curves.
I learned a lot from those guys. Side benefit was getting involved with the folks at Watervliet and seeing them change over their production processes from the old WWII stuff to the modern CNC stuff.
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