What Gives?

[J.Baker]

I'm sure I'm not the only one who's been a little puzzled by how things have been in the gun world the last year or two. It's dead slow here on this forum, and it's equally slow on most other forums I frequent (Ohio Sportsman, Ohio Outdoors, Rimfire Central, Benchrest Central, etc.). Those forums that do still seem to have decent traffic are still way down from what they were seeing just a year or two ago.

Talking to local dealers and vendors at gunshows I'm hearing the same thing. Nothing's moving, nobody's buying, and what little is selling is selling for peanuts. We've seen the same here in our classifieds with people selling 110 actions for as little as $160. Even the PRS/NPR stuff that's been super hot in recent years seems to have slowed down quite a bit in the last 6-8 months, and the massive CCW craze seems to have calmed and settled in to a normal pattern.

Guys I've known that have been in the business for 4-5 decades say they've never seen anything like this before. Ask around what's hot or trending right now and everyone just shrugs and throws their hands in the air unknowingly. I know I've been immersed in this industry for almost 20 years now and I've never seen anything quite like it.

Has there just been a huge market shift away from rifles? Did the industry just soo overly saturate the market with cheaply made guns at huge discounts the past few years in an attempt to keep sales numbers up after the election that it's stagnated the market?

Seriously, anyone got a clue what the heck the deal is?

[JeepsAndGuns]

Did the industry just so overly saturate the market with cheaply made guns at huge discounts the past few years in an attempt to keep sales numbers up after the election that it's stagnated the market?

Probably this.
The market seems kinda flooded at the moment, plus the gun owners feeling "safe" with the current president. If the political winds change next year and the "other side" takes control, there will be a complete panic and nothing will stay on the shelves and prices will skyrocket.
But right now I would blame complacency.
Also, with the prices on modern sporting rifles these days, pretty much anyone who wanted one, has one by now, and most have multiple. So now there is a large supply and low demand.

It must be regional as it does not seem to have hit around my parts. Prices are still holding steady and/or higher than normal. Gunshows seem packed, always a line to get in, prices there are still crazy and sometimes make you laugh. Not even seeing any low priced bolt actions either on the local armslist. Gunbroker does not seem as affected either (at least peoples asking prices) While they might not be selling, they seem unwilling to reduce their prices to move them.

[BB68]

Saturated the market. I have only been buying heavily discounted guns lately, no discount no buy. Ive got too many to shoot anymore, and guns I haven't shot.

[J.Baker]

It must be regional as it does not seem to have hit around my parts. Prices are still holding steady and/or higher than normal. Gunshows seem packed, always a line to get in, prices there are still crazy and sometimes make you laugh. Not even seeing any low priced bolt actions either on the local armslist. Gunbroker does not seem as affected either (at least peoples asking prices) While they might not be selling, they seem unwilling to reduce their prices to move them.

Pricing really depends on what you're looking at. If you're looking at older "classic" well built guns then yes, the prices are high (and rightfully so given all the plastic that's being peddled today). If you're looking at common newer stuff most of it can be had at bargain basement prices. Think a lot of that has to do with consumers being tired of all the cheap plastic and instead looking for higher quality either in higher grade newer guns or well crafted older classics.

[Robinhood]

Hunting land and opportunities are down also. I hear public land is so overrun with hunters that if you strike your antlers together you will get shot.

To compete in a match, everything is expensive. Ammo, scopes etc... Even if you are shooting a factory class somebody goes all out and then your not even competing unless you spend big money there too.

I know a guy from Texas who moved to a suburb of Chicago a while back. He unloaded his weapons from the moving van and before he returned to the van for another load there were 4 squad cars with swat on the way. For many it is not worth the hassle.

[psharon97]

If you think about it, during the panic buying craze, most folks who wanted to get their guns, got what they wanted and then some. They got their ammo, accessories, etc when they thought the government was going to take them. Not only the market flooded with guns of different types, but the buyers don't really have the appetite either.

It's not just AR rifles that been flooded. Look at the bolt action market: Used to, if you wanted to build a rifle you chose a Savage, Remington, or went with the few manufacturers of custom receivers such as Stiller, Surgeon, Bat, and maybe one or two more. Now there's close to 20 that you can find off a quick google search.

[Bill2905]

The staff at a nearby long established gun shop told me recently that business is not good. I noticed last few visits several tables full of used rifles that have been heavily discounted from their original asking price and not selling. Several brand new Henry Long Ranger and Tikka T3X rifles also not moving and heavily discounted.

I got into centerfire rifle shooting two years ago and a lot has changed just since then. Prices continue to drop and I think the market is just oversold with low cost rifles. The Precision shooting buying craze may also be cooling off as shooters are now flush with equipment.

Lastly, the economy is weighing on people's minds, it's all you hear in the news. People may be less inclined to part with their money. I work in manufacturing and my bosses are concerned. Even the recent gun control rhetoric, some of it the most strident I have heard since 1994, is not compelling shooters to buy guns.

[yobuck]

Well as for hunting, there is no doubt hunter numbers are down drastically from even a decade ago.
I have hunted in PA which is my home state for over 70 years. When i was young pretty much everybody i knew hunted.
Up until about 30 years ago Pa had an abundant supply of wild Pheasants. And lots of hunters hunted them.
Some only hunted small game species like Pheasants and Rabbits and kept hunting dogs just for that purpose.
My late father in law for example was one of those, and never hunted Deer until i took him along with our crew.
Today there are no wild pheasants. And unless pen raised birds have been stocked by the PGC during hunting season, there wont be any at all for hunters.
So that alone has had an affect on overall hunter numbers.
But besides that, the deer hunter numbers are down drastically also.
In PA there are far more wild turkey today than there has ever been.
There is also a much better chance of getting a trophy buck now than at any time in my lifetime.
Yet there is less desire among people to hunt them.
I see camps in the region i hunt that in years past were occupied for the entire deer season. Our own included.
But today those same camps, many of which were passed down with no cost or effort involved to obtain, go unused during the hunting season. And many that do get used, is only for a couple days at most.
This year the PGC caved in to demand and will for the first time have opening day of buck season on a Saturday as opposed to a Monday.
No doubt they will soon also cave in order to allow Sunday hunting. That way a hunter will have 3 weekends during the deer season in which to hunt. Will that add more hunters? I personally think not at least over the long haul. The way it has been for quite a few years most hunters are gone by Tuesday afternoon. With weekend hunting that will probably happen on Sunday afternoon.
So the same hunters hunting different days is the way i see that playing out.
Archery hunter numbers seem to be holding up better than gun hunter numbers. But how much affect has legalizing cross bows had on that? Maybe that’s where some of the gun hunters went, after all it is a long season, and you can be in the woods on Sundays placing (Ahem) tree stands.

[J.Baker]

Hunting numbers are definitely down everywhere, and like Robinhood mentioned a LOT of that has to do with private land access and the overcrowding of public land.

[yobuck]

Hunting numbers are definitely down everywhere, and like Robinhood mentioned a LOT of that has to do with private land access and the overcrowding of public land.

That may well be true in some states, maybe even most.
But it certainly isn’t true in PA, which has millions of acres of open public land.
And the non res license cost is as of last year 100 bucks.
Several million is owned by the PGC bought with money from license sales over many years.
Also millions of acres of state owned land known as state game lands, but open for all the public to use.
So nothing has changed with regard to land available to hunt at least there.
Certainly in the more populated areas housing developments have taken much land, none of which which was ever public owned.
In fact the amount of open land in some parts of the state has actually increased in my lifetime.
In the late 40s when i first started it would require an entire day of traveling to get from where i lived near Philly to where we hunt.
Today with the modern cars and better roads a trip from the Philly area is about 5 hours, Harrisburg is 3 hours, also 3 hours from Pittsburg.
Hunting camps were gathering places where friends got together for an annual event. Today those events happen on an IPhone screen,
and we don’t need any friends other than those. We see it every day every place we go, including our homes.
The decline in hunter numbers is in direct correlation to the increasing popularity of computers, at least as i see it.

[Bill2905]

Hunting numbers are definitely down everywhere, and like Robinhood mentioned a LOT of that has to do with private land access and the overcrowding of public land.

Another factor in declining hunting numbers is that fewer young people are continuing the tradition as they become adults. We continue to slowly evolve towards being more of a suburban/urban society. Young people are gravitating toward the cities and suburbs to find the work and culture that suits their interests. As several have mentioned, land access is a problem too. I started hunting in my 20's in Ohio where I had friends who got me into it and I knew people with land. When I moved out of state for work, I didn't have access to land and I found the public hunting areas to be over hunted and not very productive. I deer hunted a few years on private land but that land access was eventually lost as well.

[Robinhood]

Yobuck, How about getting a crossbow and I will come visit you on opening weekend.

[yobuck]

Yobuck, How about getting a crossbow and I will come visit you on opening weekend.

Never did the archery thing at all, so not much point in starting it now.
This would be a nice time to be up there seeing the fall colors.
But i wont be going till about the middle of rifle buck this year.

[JeepsAndGuns]

I will say this too, it does not seem to be just restricted to guns and gun websites. There are a few Jeep forums I frequent and they too have been dwindling in traffic and posting. I have dropped down to visiting them once a week, as there might be 1-2 new posts a day, and not worth visiting every day. These same sites just a few years ago were booming, and you had a full page or more of new posts every day.
AR15.com forums seems to be slowing down some too, with the exception of the general discussion section where there are endless threads every day about doom and gloom, they are coming tomorrow to take them all from you, they are taking over, blah blah, blah. The actual technical forums seem slow.

[txrob5150]

In Texas, the gun shops are flooded with ARs and pistols, and have been keeping bolt action inventory extremely light. You can buy any AR and just about any of the newest mainstream pistols for heavy discounts. Ammo and bolt actions are keeping their prices, but in saying that I mean that ammo is in a reasonable price range and not at the bottom.

With everyone I talk to, the general uneasiness is being caused by the fed gov and all the bullshit going on, coupled with real fear about the tariffs. Employment is good but pay is not keeping up, and most people are saving their hobby money just in case. As mentioned, I have friends into both jeeps and cars and they are saying the same thing.

But none of that explains the interest level for the forums and online stuff. Speaking as a newbie here, I can say I just got here because I just found you guys. Enjoyable place so far.

[J.Baker]

Apparently people are buying guns somewhere because according to the FBI report they set a new all time record for the number of background checks for the month of September this year - up over 200,000 from last year.

[LoneWolf]

The market is heavily saturated. You can get brand new stuff for a almost as good of a price as used unless like you stated the used stuff is basically given away. Plus most of the forums mentioned are behind on current data that can be found much faster on other social networks. Forums are slowly dying because you can't get answers nearly as fast and it's harder to ask the direct group of knowledgeable individuals. Instead of waiting for the right horse to come along and respond, I can ask the responsible individual that's done it hundreds of times or a group with direct experience.

However, the Hide seems to continue to flourish and has a more active and faster private sales system.

[Robinhood]

However, the Hide seems to continue to flourish and has a more active and faster private sales system.

My contention is the well used classified system is what makes a forum strong. Strong forums bring in Advertisers. Win win. It is all about the money.

[godale]

I know I basically take motorcycle and fishing season off and come back late October or early November


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