Proper technique for estimating prairie dog populations ?

[Blue Avenger]

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... multiply by 2 pies (I like pie!)




Pies should be rounded to 3.

Apple, with and without elderberry's
Pumpkin
Strawberry-Rhubarb
Cherry, peach, blueberry, lemon merange, banana cream,
black bottom
Wait, that's four.

Yes, 3.14159 should be rounded to four.


Cobblers are not counted -- just eatened.



.
tried to fix your post, but it is to confusing ;D a limit of four is only for a very small plate

[carolyny476]

Try printing a bunch of these for the rancher. He coppy's the info from their drivers license and now he knows exactly who did what.

http://pages.ripco.net/~jwn/idnrback.gif


Thanks you for the reply.

[SuperChuck]

ok...

Let Pd equal the number of dogs killed
Let St equals the total number of shots taken
Kr equals kill ratio
Ty equals the total number of yards shot
Dmin equals the shortest distance shot
Davg is the average distance of each shot
Dmax equals the distance of the longest shot of the day

Assuming we were positioned in a uniformly dense population of dogs with a 360 degree safe direction of fire, and disregarding the chance that muliple shots will be taken at the same dog before connecting;

The area of affected shooting would be calculated by the "lethal doughnut (Ald)" with a hole the size of the shortest shot, and an outside the size of the longest shot.

Assuming a 100 yard shortest shot, and a 450 yard longshot, we can determine that the Ald= ((Dmax*3)2 * 3.14159)-((Dmin*3)2 * 3.14159)) or 5,442,804 ft2. Which equals 124 acres (131.44 acres are in the complete circle formed by the longest shot, only 6.5 acres were in the "too close" sanctuary).

Assuming that Davg closely approximates the shooter's sweet spot/comfort zone, and would be the point of highest successful shots, we can then model the density of the dogs by assuming that the frequency of shots at distance could be represented by a normal distribution centered on Davg called SHOTdistribution.

Accuracy - in the form of successful shots - would tend to be greatest at Dmin and least at Dmax. We will assume that Pd/St = Kr the probability of a sucessfull kill(kill ratio), and is also most relevant at Davg. Using the lever rule, and assuming our shooting skills are not infallible (what heresy), the success rate at Dmin is called KrDmin and equals the square root of Kr.

[SuperChuck]

Now that we know two points, Dmin, KrDmin and Davg, Kr, we can extrapolate/calculate KrDmax, or the kill ratio at the longest shot distance.

The Population at any given distance is the function of the number of kills at any given distance PdDmin+x divided by the kill ratio at that distance KrDmin+x divided by a constant, Ldr=percentage of lucky dogs that were never even sighted in or shot at;

((PdDmin+x/KrDmin+x)/Ldr)

Integration of this function, as a function of Dmin+x will establish the population density over the Ald. Take the total inhabited/infested area in question, apply this density, et voila, you have the estimate...............................

it definitely takes a B.S. degree to answer that one <eg>

[borg]

^^What he said. With the maths.